5.7 Price to Sales Ratio

Price/Sales Ratio is a measure of the  number of
years to recover the stock price with zero sales growth.

The price to sales ratio divides the stock price by sales per share.  This multiple can then be applied to identify the relative value of similar stocks.   The following plot from Valuation Tutor shows you the Price to Sales Ratio for the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

 

If you compare it to the P/E Ratios shown previously, you will notice quite a difference between the two charts, illustrating that “top-line” ratios like Price/Sales can look quite different from “bottom-line” ratios like the P/E ratio.

One rationale for working with the price to sales ratio is that Sales Revenue is the top line of the income statement and thus potential less subject to manipulation.

However, even though this top line item is usually subject to less potential manipulation care must still be taken to read item 7 in the 10-K, specifically the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) and Forward Looking Statements, and Critical Accounting Policy” section.   This section often provides a discussion of the stock’s revenue recognition criteria. 

Revenue recognition is subject to manipulation, and some interesting insights into are provided by Mary-Jo Rebelo in The Effect of the Dot-Com Decline on Independent Accountants (The CPA Journal, May 2003).

Revenue recognition tops the list of creative accounting techniques employed by many dot-coms. The decision to capitalize or expense is inextricably intertwined with this point. A company defers as many costs as possible. Capitalized costs are reported as an asset on the balance sheet rather than an expense on the profit-and-loss statement. Never before has an entire industry had sales matter so much to its lenders and investors.  For a website trading at 200 times expected sales, even a small increase in reported revenues can translate into a dramatic increase in market capitalization. Here are a few examples of how it can be done:

The gross-up. Many dot-coms gross up revenues by reporting the entire price a customer pays at their site even though the company may actually keep only a small percentage of that total amount.

Contra deals or barter. This method involves booking revenue ahead of when the sale actually occurs. A dot-com exchanges advertising space on its website for advertising space on another to build brand recognition and use up excess advertising capacity without using cash. GAAP requires recording barter transactions at fair value, but does not specify how to determine fair value. Many dot-coms have treated such barter advertising deals as a sale, thereby accelerating revenue as well as expenses.

Expenses. Dot-coms often manipulate the categorization of expenses in an effort to report a more favorable operating performance. Because dot-coms rarely report net profits, the focus is on gross profits before the deduction of indirect expenses. Dot-coms try to minimize direct expenses by reclassifying them as indirect. The primary area for abuse is coupons or discount vouchers, which are reported as indirect expenses. By reducing direct expenses while increasing indirect expenses, the company breaks even at the gross profit level even though net losses are the same. Additionally, fulfillment costs, the expenses associated with warehousing, packaging, and shipping products, are used in creative accounting.  Companies usually record fulfillment costs as a cost of sales, but dot-coms classify fulfillment costs as a marketing expense. This categorization allows dot-coms to conceal operational expenses within the hefty marketing costs that lenders or investors likely believe are associated with establishing brand awareness.

Once these creative accounting techniques are combined, the profit picture looks more promising. When dot-coms have crashed, the creative accounting employed in an effort to enhance financial performance has often been placed in the lap of the outside accountant or auditor to explain and justify.”

 On the positive side, Sales Revenue is more stable than net income and it is always positive.   This means that standard prediction models such as (log) regression analysis can be applied to forecast sales growth.  However, being a “top line” item, it is the starting point for a price ratio analysis.  The drivers of the Price/Sales Revenue ratio include profit margins, growth rates.  We expect to see a positive relationship between these two drivers and the Price to Sales Ratio.  The next table shows you the relationship over time of the profit margin and the Price/Sales Ratio.

 Example:  Sample of Price/Sales and Profit Margins

 

Note:  TTM stands for the trailing twelve months which you learnt how to construct from the Quarterly financials in the price earnings ratio section.

For this sample of stocks, observe the relationship between the Price/Sales ratio and the Gross Margin.  It is clear that profit margin is a major driver of the Price/Sales Revenue Ratio.  As a result, if there is a significant departure from this relationship an analyst would use this as a flag that there may be issues associated with how the company is recognizing its sales.  In the previous section we summarized some of the revenue recognition issues that can be explored if the price to sales ratio raises a flag.